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Assessing the impact of the ASEAN Economic Community on Vietnam’s goods trade: Evidence from an extended gravity model

Lê Tuấn Anh: Đại học Kinh tế quốc dân;
doi:10.62831/202608038

Abstract

This study provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) on Vietnam’s merchandise trade over the period 1990–2024, employing an extended gravity model and the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method. The findings indicate that economic size, proxied by GDP, remains the primary determinant of trade flows, with estimated coefficients of 2.046 for Vietnam’s GDP and 0.447 for its trading partners’ GDP. Notably, the coefficient on the AEC variable is negative (−0.653), suggesting the presence of relative trade diversion and preferential erosion effects, whereby trade is increasingly reoriented toward partners outside the bloc under the influence of new-generation free trade agreements. In light of these results, the study argues for a strategic repositioning of ASEAN as a regional hub for raw material supply within Vietnam’s trade architecture.

Keywords
AEC gravity model international trade Vietnam trade diversion ASEAN integration

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Issue Tạp chí Công Thương - Các kết quả nghiên cứu khoa học và ứng dụng công nghệ số 8 tháng 4 năm 2026

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