The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Vietnam's oil price shock and the stock market
Published: July 24, 2026
Abstract
This study analyzed the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the oil price shock and the Vietnamese stock market using the SVAR autoregressive vector structural model and linear distributed autoregressive model (ARDL) and nonlinear (non-linear ARDL). The results show that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused global and domestic oil supply shocks and negatively impacted the Vietnamese stock market. Investors in the Vietnamese stock market need to monitor the oil price situation to make appropriate investment decisions. They should consider the impact of geopolitical factors on the Vietnamese stock market. The study also proposes some necessary directions and solutions to minimize the adverse effects of the oil shock on the Vietnamese stock market.
Akpan, I.T. (no date). Impact of Interest Rates on Stock Prices: An Analysis of the All Share Index. Available at: http://article.sapub.org/10.5923.j.ijfa.20140302.06.html.
2.
Aloui, C. and Jammazi, R. (2009). “The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour: A regime switching approach,” Energy Economics, 31(5), pp. 789–799. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.03.009.
Boungou, W. and Yatié, A. (2022). “The impact of the Ukraine–Russia conflict on world stock market returns,” Economics Letters, 215, p. 110516. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110516.
Đan, P.T.T.T. & V.L.L. (2020). Asymmetric impact of oil price fluctuations on the Vietnamese stock market: Approach to the ARDL non-linear model. Available at: http://jabes.ueh.edu.vn/Home/SearchArticle?article_Id=dc547f27-a5af-4f04-a0aa-da9c6db7123a.
5.
Gaio, L.E. et al. (2022). “The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on market efficiency: Evidence for the developed stock market,” Finance Research Letters, 50, p. 103302. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103302.
Hoang, T.M. (2021). “Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shock on Stock Markets in Vietnam: An Empirical Investigation Based on SVAR Model and NARDL Model,” Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(6), pp. 553–565. Available at: https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no6.0553.
Kang, W., Ratti, R.A. and Vespignani, J.L. (2015). “The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market: A note on the roles of U.S. and non-U.S. oil production,” Economics Letters, 145, pp. 176–181. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.008.
Le, T.-H. and Chang, Y. (2015). “Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market performance: Do nature of shocks and economies matter?,” Energy Economics, 51, pp. 261–274. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.019.
Le, T.H. and Luong, A. (2022). “Dynamic spillovers between oil price, stock market, and investor sentiment: Evidence from the United States and Vietnam,” Resources Policy, 78, p. 102931. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102931.
Liu, X. et al. (2022). “Economic policy uncertainty, oil price volatility and stock market returns: Evidence from a nonlinear model,” The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 62, p. 101777. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2022.101777.
Narayan, P.K. and Narayan, S. (2010). “Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices,” Applied Energy, 87(1), pp. 356–361. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.05.037.
Nguyen, C. and Bhatti, M.I. (2012). “Copula model dependency between oil prices and stock markets: Evidence from China and Vietnam,” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(4), pp. 758–773. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2012.03.004.
Nguyen, T., Nguyen, D.Q. and Nguyen, V. (2020). “The Impacts of Oil Price and Exchange Rate on Vietnamese Stock Market,” Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(8), pp. 143–150. Available at: https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no8.143.
Obalade, A.A. (2012). “Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Behaviour: The Nigerian Experience,” Journal of Economics, 3(1), pp. 19–24. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/09765239.2012.11884948.
Quỳnh, N.T.N. and Linh, V.T.H. (2020). “Tác động của một số yếu tố kinh tế vĩ mô đến chỉ số giá chứng khoán tại Việt Nam,” Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of Science - Economics and Business Administration, 14(3), pp. 47–63. Available at: https://doi.org/10.46223/hcmcoujs.econ.vi.14.3.477.2019.
The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market on JSTOR (no date). Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/25621509.
17.
Trần, T.V.A. (2021). Đo lường tác động của các yếu tố tâm lý tới thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam. Available at: https://dlib.neu.edu.vn/handle/NEU/34860
