The impact of the trade liberalisation on Vietnam’s export, import and trade balance
Published: July 23, 2026
Abstract
This study analyzes the impact of trade liberalization on Vietnam’s exports, imports, and trade balance. The study uses Vietnam's time series from 1991 to 2020. The ECM model and ordinary least squares (OLS) method are employed to determine the factors impacting Vietnam’s exports, imports, and trade balance. The study finds that in the export model, only the variable of world income (WI) affects Vietnam’s export growth. Meanwhile, in the import model, the variables of the multilateral real exchange rate (MRER) and tariff rate (TR) affect Vietnam’s import growth. In addition, in the trade balance model, the variables of WI, TR, and Vietnam’s income all affect Vietnam’s trade balance.
Keywords
This study analyzes the impact of trade liberalization on Vietnam’s exportsimportsand trade balance. The study uses Vietnam's time series from 1991 to 2020. The ECM model and ordinary least squares (OLS) method are employed to determine the factors impacting Vietnam’s exportsimportsand trade balance. The study finds that in the export modelonly the variable of world income (WI) affects Vietnam’s export growth. Meanwhilein the import modelthe variables of the multilateral real exchange rate (MRER) and tariff rate (TR) affect Vietnam’s import growth. In additionin the trade balance modelthe variables of WITRand Vietnam’s income all affect Vietnam’s trade balance.
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