Public Investment Implementation Capacity and Local Economic Growth in Vietnam in the First Half of 2026

In the context of Vietnam’s 2026 public investment plan exceeding VND 1 quadrillion and the Government’s first introduction of a disbursement scoring mechanism under Decision No. 1129/QD-TTg, the study proposes measuring implementation capacity through relative disbursement progress, fulfillment of registered plans, and reporting discipline. A preliminary analysis of 34 provinces and centrally governed cities shows that the 15 localities with disbursement rates at or above the national average as of June 18, 2026, recorded average first-half GRDP growth of 9.12%, compared with 8.66% for the remaining group. The difference of 0.46 percentage points is not statistically significant (Welch p≈0,432; OLS-HC1 p≈0,424). The findings suggests that disbursement speed alone is insufficient to explain growth differences and support a multidimensional approach to implementation capacity.