Issue: Số 22 - Tháng 8 - 2026Tài chính - Ngân hàng - Bảo hiểm
The impact of the real exchange rate and economic activity on the Vietnam - China trade balance: Evidence from the NARDL model
Published: August 26, 2026
doi:10.62831/nckh.2026.3576.v1
Abstract
This study examines the impact of the real exchange rate and economic activity on the Vietnam - China trade balance using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model with monthly data from January 2017 to June 2026. Economic activity is represented by the industrial production index. Unit-root tests indicate a mixture of I(0) and I(1) variables, supporting the application of NARDL. The estimation results confirm a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The real exchange rate has an asymmetric effect on the bilateral trade balance, while industrial production has a positive effect, highlighting the role of domestic production capacity in improving trade performance. The study proposes policy implications for exchange-rate management, domestic production development, and improvement of the Vietnam - China trade balance.
Keywords
real exchange ratetrade balanceVietnam–ChinaNARDLindustrial production index
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