Issue: Số 20 - Tháng 7 - 2026Tài chính - Ngân hàng - Bảo hiểm
The impact of merchandise trade growth on cargo insurance premium revenue in Vietnam
Published: August 8, 2026
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between merchandise trade and cargo insurance premium revenue in Vietnam during 2004 - 2024. Annual data were analyzed using augmented Dickey - Fuller tests, autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing, short-run difference models, and Granger causality tests. The findings provide limited evidence of a stable long-term relationship. In contrast, short-run models indicate that growth in exports, imports, and total merchandise trade is positively associated with growth in cargo insurance premium revenue. Imports display a clearer lagged effect than exports. However, the Granger causality tests do not support a predictive causal relationship. The study recommends improving insurers’ market development strategies, strengthening cooperation with exporters, importers, logistics providers, and banks, digitalizing underwriting and claims processes, and designing insurance products that better reflect evolving trade and transportation risks.
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