Abstract
Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is an aggregate economic indicator that reflects the final result of the production activities of all resident producer units of a region’s economy for a certain period (usually one year). In this study, the ARIMA model was used to forecast the GRDP proportion of economic sectors in Ho Chi Minh City. Ho Chi Minh City’s GRDP data was collected from the city’s statistical yearbooks in the period 2000–2022. Results showed that the proportion of agriculture, forestry, and fishery sectors in Ho Chi Minh City is expected to decrease from 0.65%, equivalent to VND 8,390 billion in 2022, to 0.5%, equivalent to VND 8,697 billion in 2030. Meanwhile, the proportion of industry and construction groups is forecast to decrease from 24.45%, equivalent to VND 326,248 billion in 2022, to 21.96%, equivalent to VND 383,719 billion in 2030. The proportion of service groups is expected to increase from 73.89%, equivalent to VND 947,044 billion in 2022, to 77.54%, equivalent to VND 1,354,612 billion in 2030. Based on these results, some solutions were proposed to help the city restructure its economic sectors appropriately in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0).
Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is an aggregate economic indicator that reflects the final result of the production activities of all resident producer units of a region’s economy for a certain period (usually one year). In this study
the ARIMA model was used to forecast the GRDP proportion of economic sectors in Ho Chi Minh City. Ho Chi Minh City’s GRDP data was collected from the city’s statistical yearbooks in the period 2000–2022. Results showed that the proportion of agriculture
forestry
and fishery sectors in Ho Chi Minh City is expected to decrease from 0.65%
equivalent to VND 8
390 billion in 2022
to 0.5%
equivalent to VND 8
697 billion in 2030. Meanwhile
the proportion of industry and construction groups is forecast to decrease from 24.45%
equivalent to VND 326
248 billion in 2022
to 21.96%
equivalent to VND 383
719 billion in 2030. The proportion of service groups is expected to increase from 73.89%
equivalent to VND 947
044 billion in 2022
to 77.54%
equivalent to VND 1
354
612 billion in 2030. Based on these results
some solutions were proposed to help the city restructure its economic sectors appropriately in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0).