Uncertainty and the future of cryptocurrencies: Determinants and emerging development trajectories

This study examines the interplay between sources of uncertainty and the future trajectory of the cryptocurrency market within the global financial system. Drawing on a synthesis of the literature, market data analysis, and comparative policy assessment, the research identifies key drivers of uncertainty, including regulatory ambiguity, technological risks, price volatility, competition from central bank digital currencies, and increasing scrutiny related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. The findings suggest that the evolution of cryptocurrencies is likely to follow three strategic pathways: institutionalization as a store of value akin to digital gold, coexistence with central bank systems as a parallel financial architecture, and transformation into a foundational infrastructure underpinning Web3 and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems.