Tourism seasonality and its determinants: Evidence from the Northern region of Quang Tri province

This paper investigates the seasonality patterns and key determinants of tourism development in the northern region of Quang Tri Province. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the study integrates secondary data from 2017–2024 with primary data derived from 800 survey responses (400 enterprises and 400 tourists). The findings reveal pronounced seasonal fluctuations, with tourist arrivals peaking in the summer months and declining sharply during the rainy season. The linear regression model demonstrates strong statistical significance (Sig. = 0.000) and substantial explanatory power (R² = 0.732). Among the determinants, climate exerts the greatest influence (β = 0.528), followed by tourism resources (β = 0.461) and technical and organizational capacity (β = 0.374). These results underscore the structural drivers of tourism seasonality in the region and provide an empirical basis for advancing more balanced and resilient tourism development.