Impacts of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) on Vietnam’s agricultural export supply chains
Published: September 16, 2026
Abstract
This study analyzes the potential impacts of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) on Vietnam’s agricultural export supply chains to the EU market, focusing on three key commodity groups: coffee, rubber, and wood and wood products. The EUDR is considered a new generation of “green” non-tariff measures, as it extends traceability requirements to individual plots of land while closely linking trade with forest conservation and biodiversity protection objectives. Building on previous studies of the gravity model of trade and the impacts of non-tariff measures on Vietnam’s agricultural exports, the article systematizes the theoretical foundations and employs a structural gravity model estimated using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method. This quantitative approach is complemented by surveys of enterprises and farming households to quantify and explain the mechanisms through which the EUDR affects Vietnam at both the macro and micro levels.
Keywords
EUDRnon-tariff measuresagricultural exportsgravity modelPPMLVietnamEuropean Union
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