Số phát hành: Số 2 - Tháng 1 - 2026Quản trị - Quản lý
Developing a Risk-Informed Oil Price Forecast Index to support corporate decision-making
Xuất bản: tháng 8 4, 2026
Tóm tắt
This study proposes a risk-informed composite oil price indicator to support corporate decision-making in the oil and gas sector. The Oil Price Forecast Index (OPI) integrates supply fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, technical signals, and geopolitical risk factors into a transparent and interpretable measure. Rather than producing point forecasts, OPI captures directional signals and regime shifts by explicitly incorporating uncertainty and risk premia, particularly relevant for upstream companies operating under PSC regimes. The study shows that this composite approach complements conventional forecasts by translating diverse market signals into a coherent decision-support tool. Based on publicly available data and an equal-weighted structure, OPI enhances transparency, managerial usability, and governance over oil price assumptions in corporate planning and risk management.
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