Issue: Số 10 - Tháng 4 - 2026Tài chính - Ngân hàng - Bảo hiểm
Forecasting bankruptcy risk for Vietnamese listed companies using accounting and market data
Published: June 28, 2026
Abstract
This study develops a bankruptcy risk prediction model for listed companies in Vietnam using accounting and market data over the period 2016–2024. Based on a sample of 103 firms, the analysis employs a machine learning approach with logistic regression to evaluate predictive performance across different data specifications. The results indicate that the model based on accounting data achieves the highest predictive accuracy, with AUC values of 92.5%, 97.75%, and 89%, while the market-based model demonstrates comparatively weaker performance. Moreover, combining accounting and market data does not enhance predictive power, suggesting that market variables provide limited incremental information beyond accounting indicators. Overall, the findings underscore the dominant role of accounting information in forecasting bankruptcy risk in the Vietnamese context.
Keywords
bankruptcy riskfinancial distressaccounting datamarket dataLogistic regression model
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