Impact of the United States' “friend-shoring” strategy on Vietnam's exports in the context of global supply chain shifts
Xuất bản: tháng 6 30, 2026
doi:10.62831/nckh.2026.624.v1
Tóm tắt
This study examines the impact of the Friend-shoring Index (FSI) on Vietnam’s exports to the United States, thereby clarifying the role of political and institutional alignment in shaping bilateral trade dynamics amid the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains. Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the study estimates the short- and long-run effects of the FSI on Vietnam’s exports and conducts causality and model stability tests to ensure the robustness and reliability of the empirical results. Drawing on these findings, the study provides policy implications for enhancing Vietnam’s capacity to leverage the friend-shoring trend as a new driver of sustainable export growth over the long term.
Từ khóa
friend-shoringthe United StatesVietnamexports
Tài liệu tham khảo
1.
Head, K., & Mayer, T. (2014). Gravity equations: Workhorse, toolkit, and cookbook. In G. Gopinath, E. Helpman, & K. Rogoff (Eds.), Handbook of international economics (Vol. 4, pp. 131–195). Elsevier.
2.
International Monetary Fund. (2023). World economic outlook: Geoeconomic fragmentation and trade patterns. International Monetary Fund.
3.
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551 - 1580.
4.
Krugman, P. R., & Obstfeld, M. (2018). International economics: Theory and policy (11th ed.). Pearson.
5.
Salvatore, D. (2019). International economics (13th ed.). Wiley.
6.
Smith, A. (1776). An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations. Strahan and Cadell.
7.
UNCTAD. (2023). Global supply chain resilience and friend-shoring trends. United Nations.
8.
World Bank. (2023). Vietnam country economic memorandum: Shifting gears toward sustainable growth. https://www.worldbank.org/
